The secret to gambling: smallball (or, slow and steady wins the race)
I see that a lot all over the place, reading hand histories, playing toasters, looking at lines. Sometimes the Hail Mary pass works, but why not just move the chains or advance base to base?
On the 2+2 forums they advocate betting no more than 1 percent to 2 percent of your bankroll on sports bets. Why? Anything can happen. Your team may not win, or even make the line.
Small bets may not look like much, but they will keep you from going busto and you can build upon them as your roll grows.
I think of this in poker, too, with people making crazy moves. Taylor Caby says time and time again in his videos that you don't need to always be making moves to be a winning player. Play solid. Pick your moments and be bankrolled for variance.